國立屏東大學學報:管理類  2023/12
第六期 (Vol.6)    
 
Google搜尋趨勢指數反映投資人情緒效果  
Google Search Trends Index Reflects Investor Sentiment
許信輝
Hsin-Hui Hsu
張鼎煥
Ting-Huan Chang
【中文摘要】
網路普及，投資人轉向以搜尋引擎來獲取資訊。故本研究利用緃橫資料方法估計近十年臺灣資本額百億以上之上市公司，有關Google搜尋趨勢指數對股票報酬及分別與成交量、股價淨值比、股價盈餘比交互作用下之影響。研究發現(1)10年之全樣本股票報酬與風險較後5年之次樣本低，且受系統性風險影響程度低(2)後5年之次樣本較10年之全樣本股市成交量放大且Google搜尋趨勢指數上升(3)後5年之次樣本Google搜尋趨勢指數對股票報酬產生正向顯著影響，亦帶動成交量推升股價，10年之全樣本則無(4)網路熱搜對高股價淨值比與高股價盈餘比之成長型股票產生短期正向顯著影響長期則出現反轉(5)將Google搜尋趨勢指數作為投資人情緒之代理變數，對股價報酬率有正向顯著影響，有助於價格發現。
【中文關鍵字】 Google搜尋趨勢指數;股票報酬;股價淨值比(PB);股價盈餘比(PE);縱橫資料

【英文摘要】
With the popularity of the Internet and mobile devices, investors have turned to search engines to obtain information. Therefore, this paper uses the data method of the horizontal data to estimate the influence of the Google search trend index on stock returns and the interaction with trading volume, price-to-book value ratio, and price-to-earnings ratio of listed companies in Taiwan with a capital of more than 10 billion in the past decade. The study found that (1) the stock returns and risks of the 10-year full sample are lower than those of the next 5-year sample, and are less affected by systemic risk. (2) The stock market trading volume of the second sample in the next 5 years is larger than that of the full sample in the 10 years, and the Google search trend index has increased. (3) The second sample Google search trend index in the next 5 years has a positive and significant impact on stock returns, and also drives the trading volume to push up the stock price, but the full sample of 10 years does not. (4) Internet hot searches have a positive and significant short-term impact on growth stocks with high price-to-book value ratios and high price-to-earnings ratios, but reverse in the long run. (5) Taking the Google search trend index as a proxy variable of investor sentiment has a positive and significant impact on the stock price return, which is helpful for price discovery.
【英文關鍵字】Google Trends;Stock Return;Price-Book Ratio;Price-to-Earnings Ratio;Panel Data